Minnesota Timberwolves — Milwaukee Bucks 112:100: result and stats

Minnesota Timberwolves host Milwaukee Bucks at the Target Center with both teams searching for answers in a season that has already gone sideways. The Timberwolves are 4-3 but have lost two of their last three since Anthony Edwards underwent knee surgery, an absence expected to last around two months. The Bucks are 1-5 and have dropped five of their first six, their worst start in years. The standings suggest a mismatch; the injury report makes it far more complicated.

Minnesota's post-Edwards identity crisis

The Timberwolves' season changed the moment Edwards went down. Before his injury, Minnesota had won three of four, with LaMelo Ball orchestrating an offence that looked fluid and dangerous. Since then, the Timberwolves have gone 1-2, and the 121-111 loss in San Antonio exposed the fragility of their new configuration. Ball shot 2 of 10 from the field and finished with more turnovers than assists, a performance that head coach Chris Finch did not sugarcoat: “He’s got to figure it out. The turnovers are unnecessary.”

The supporting cast has been uneven. Jaden McDaniels leads the team in scoring at 17.3 points per game on 55.3 per cent shooting, and Ayo Dosunmu has added 15.3 points, but Rudy Gobert has laboured offensively, shooting just 41.2 per cent from the field and below 50 per cent from the free-throw line. Donte DiVincenzo remains out with a torn Achilles, further thinning the backcourt. The Timberwolves are 2-1 at home, and they need this one before a demanding November schedule.

LaMelo Ball and the burden of creation

Ball arrived in Minnesota this offseason in a four-team trade that sent out Julius Randle, Naz Reid and a haul of draft capital, and the early returns have been mixed. He is averaging 14.4 points on 39.3 per cent shooting, numbers well below his standards, and his foul trouble and turnovers have been recurring issues. Finch has defended him publicly, arguing that opponents are “fouling him all over the floor” and that the whistle has been inconsistent, but the reality is that Minnesota need Ball to be closer to the player who once ran an offence in Charlotte.

Against a Milwaukee defence that has struggled all season, Ball has an opportunity to find rhythm. The Bucks allow 121.3 points per game, and their perimeter defence has been porous. If Ball can attack early and force help rotations, McDaniels and Dosunmu should benefit from the space created. The alternative — another passive, turnover-prone night — would leave Minnesota relying on Gobert’s offensive rebounding and second-chance points, a formula that has not sustained them.

Milwaukee's defensive collapse

Milwaukee arrive in Minneapolis on the back of a 136-111 home defeat to Cleveland, a game that underlined how far this group has fallen defensively. The Bucks are allowing 121.3 points per game and have been particularly vulnerable from beyond the arc, where opponents have punished their slow rotations. Tyler Herro leads the team at 22.0 points per game and is shooting 44.7 per cent from three, but the offence has been too reliant on individual shot-making rather than collective creation.

The frontcourt has been a problem. Myles Turner has struggled to anchor the defence, and Kyle Kuzma has been inconsistent on both ends. Rookies Brayden Burries and Nate Ament have provided energy — each scored 14 points against Cleveland — and head coach Taylor Jenkins has admitted that he is still searching for the right combinations. “Night to night, they’re playing with different personnel groupings,” Jenkins said. “We haven’t found consistency when it comes to who they’re playing with.”

Gobert's return and the battle inside

Gobert is off the injury report after missing Saturday’s loss with lower-back spasms, and his return is significant. The four-time Defensive Player of the Year is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game and remains Minnesota’s defensive anchor. With Edwards out, Gobert’s rim protection and rebounding become even more important, particularly against a Milwaukee team that has been out-rebounded in four of its six games.

The matchup against Turner is one Gobert should win. Turner has been slow laterally and has not protected the rim at his usual level. If Gobert can control the glass and deter drives, Minnesota can survive Ball’s inefficiency. If Milwaukee can pull Gobert away from the basket and attack him in space, the game becomes far more uncomfortable for the hosts. Jonathan Kuminga, who has started alongside Gobert, will need to help on the boards and provide secondary rim protection.

History and the shape of the game

The recent head-to-head has favoured Minnesota. The Timberwolves won both meetings last season, including a 139-106 blowout in January, and they have averaged 119.6 points per game in their last five home games against Milwaukee. The Bucks have not won at the Target Center since 2024, and their 1-5 start has done little to suggest that run is about to end.

Minnesota are rated about 81 per cent likely to win, a share that has barely moved since the market opened, while Milwaukee sit at roughly 19 per cent. The expected combined score is around 234 points, in line with a total line of 233.5 — a reflection of both teams’ defensive limitations and the pace at which they prefer to play.

A likely scoreline keeps the game in the low-to-mid 120s, where Minnesota’s depth and home advantage should tell. For the Bucks to pull the upset, they need Herro to stay hot, Turner to win the interior battle against Gobert, and the rookies to provide meaningful minutes without collapsing defensively. For Minnesota, the equation is simpler: protect the ball, let Ball find a rhythm, and lean on Gobert to clean up the mistakes. A win would steady a season that is already threatening to slip; a loss would deepen the sense that the Timberwolves are a team without its compass.

Preview prepared from the match data · 2 November