Serbia — Germany 1:3: result, goals and stats

Serbia host Germany at the Rajko Mitic Stadium in Belgrade for a Matchday 5 fixture in League A, Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League, with the visitors desperate to keep their quarter-final hopes alive and the hosts simply looking to salvage pride from a campaign that has unravelled. Germany sit third on five points, three behind the joint leaders Netherlands and Greece, and cannot afford another slip. Serbia are bottom with zero points from four matches, already eliminated from contention, and arrive with a squad so depleted that their coach has been forced to improvise across midfield and defence.

Serbia’s squad crisis deepens by the day

The situation in the Serbia camp is close to critical. Veljko Paunović, who took charge after the dismissal of Dragan Stojković, has seen his squad stripped bare by a chaotic sequence of withdrawals, injuries and suspensions. Strahinja Pavlović and Aleksa Terzić pulled out before the camp, Dušan Vlahović withdrew yet again, Filip Kostić arrived only to be sent home injured, and Aleksandar Stanković was hurt in training. To compound matters, Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović are both suspended after accumulating yellow cards, leaving Paunović without three of his first-choice central midfielders.

The absences have forced Paunović to abandon the 4-2-3-1 shape he had favoured and switch to a 3-4-2-1, with Vanja Milinković-Savić in goal behind a back three of Strahinja Eraković, Srđan Babić and Nikola Milenković. Stefan Džodić and Sergej Milinković-Savić are the only realistic options in the double pivot, with Lazar Samardžić and Kosta Nedeljković providing width. Mihajlo Cvetković and Luka Jović are expected to lead the line in Vlahović’s absence. Serbia have scored three goals in four group matches but conceded eight, and their confidence is fragile.

Germany’s laboured start under Klopp

Germany have not had the smooth Nations League campaign many expected under Jürgen Klopp. After two draws, a win and a defeat from their opening four matches, they have scored just three goals and conceded twice, a return that has raised questions about the team’s attacking fluency. The absence of Jamal Musiala through injury has stripped the side of its most creative outlet, and Karim Adeyemi was surprisingly left out of the squad altogether for this window.

Klopp is expected to rely on Florian Wirtz as the focal point of the attack, with Kai Havertz operating ahead of him and Derry Scherhant offering a wide option. Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlović will form the double pivot, with Felix Nmecha adding energy in midfield. In defence, Marc ter Stegen is set to start in goal behind a back four of Philipp Treu, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck and Nathaniel Brown or Maximilian Mittelstädt. Germany have no fresh injury concerns beyond the long-term absentees, but the pressure to deliver a convincing performance is mounting.

Group A2: a three-way fight for the top two

The standings are tight at the top. Netherlands and Greece are level on eight points, with Germany three points behind in third and Serbia rooted to the bottom on zero. Only the top two advance to the quarter-finals, and with two matchdays remaining, Germany cannot afford to drop points in Belgrade. A victory would take them to eight points and keep them within touching distance of the leaders, while a defeat would leave them needing favours elsewhere.

For Serbia, the equation is simpler and bleaker. Already eliminated, they are playing for pride, for their home crowd and for the opportunity to end a difficult campaign on a positive note. Paunović has spoken about the need to restore belief and to give the younger players in the squad valuable experience against elite opposition. The atmosphere at the Rajko Mitic is expected to be passionate but tense, with the home supporters aware that their team is heavy underdogs.

Head-to-head and the memory of Munich

The historical record offers Germany a clear edge. The most recent meeting, a Nations League fixture in Munich earlier in this campaign, ended in a 2-0 win for Germany, a result that underlined the gap in quality and organisation between the sides. Serbia struggled to create clear chances in that match and were undone by Germany’s pressing and quick transitions.

Serbia’s most famous victory over Germany came at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, when Milan Jovanović’s goal secured a 1-0 win against a German side reduced to ten men. That result remains one of the proudest moments in Serbian football history, but it is an outlier in an otherwise lopsided rivalry. Paunović will remind his players of that upset, but the gap in available resources between the sides is far wider now than it was then.

The likely pattern and the chances

The probabilities make Germany the more likely winner, with a 75% chance of victory. A draw is rated at 16%, while Serbia’s chances sit at just 10%. The estimates have barely moved since the opening line, reflecting the one-sided nature of the matchup and Serbia’s extensive absentee list. A likely score is Serbia 0:2 Germany, which would mirror the reverse fixture and the general pattern of Germany’s control in this rivalry.

The pattern of the contest will be defined by Germany’s possession and Serbia’s attempts to stay compact and counter. Wirtz will look to find pockets of space between Serbia’s midfield and defence, while Havertz’s movement will test a back three that has struggled for cohesion. Serbia will sit deep, absorb pressure and look to Jović and Cvetković on the break. The first goal will be pivotal: an early German breakthrough could open the floodgates and turn the match into a damage-limitation exercise for the hosts, while a resilient Serbian rearguard would test Germany’s patience and give the home crowd hope of an unlikely upset.

Preview prepared from the match data · 12 November