Kyoji Horiguchi — Asu Almabaev: fight stream and result

The UFC flyweight division gets a compelling clash between two highly accomplished contenders as former title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi takes on Kazakhstan's Asu Almabaev. The Japanese veteran brings exceptional speed, sharp counter-striking and extensive championship experience, while Almabaev arrives with a dangerous submission game and a strong recent record. Both men have suffered defeats to Manel Kape, making this an especially interesting opportunity to demonstrate their credentials against another leading contender. Horiguchi enters as the more likely winner, with his chances assessed at 61% compared with 39% for Almabaev. The Japanese fighter's technical precision and experience could give him the advantage, but his opponent has the grappling skills to make this a difficult assignment.

Horiguchi: A veteran looking to return to winning ways

Kyoji Horiguchi (36-6-1) remains one of the most accomplished flyweights in mixed martial arts. Ranked fifth in the UFC division, the 36-year-old Japanese fighter has built an impressive career through his speed, movement and ability to combine traditional karate techniques with modern MMA striking. Fighting from an orthodox stance, he is particularly effective at controlling distance, entering with quick combinations and punishing opponents who leave openings.

His UFC record includes 11 appearances and 9 victories, with 2 wins by knockout, 1 by submission and 6 by decision. His statistics also highlight his defensive quality: Horiguchi lands an average of 3.64 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.08. His striking accuracy stands at 47%, and his defence rate reaches 64%.

However, his latest appearance ended in disappointment against Manel Kape. On June 20, Horiguchi suffered a third-round knockout after previously controlling important portions of the contest. The defeat ended an impressive unbeaten run of eight fights and exposed the danger of facing an explosive opponent capable of changing the course of a fight with a single strike.

Before that setback, Horiguchi had produced convincing performances against Amir Albazi and Tagir Ulanbekov. He defeated Albazi by unanimous decision and submitted Ulanbekov with a rear-naked choke, demonstrating that his game remains effective in both striking and grappling exchanges.

Almabaev: A dangerous grappler with championship ambitions

Asu Almabaev (24-3) represents a very different challenge. The 32-year-old Kazakh fighter is ranked seventh in the flyweight division and has established himself as one of its most dangerous submission specialists. His professional record includes 11 victories by submission, reflecting a grappling-focused approach that can create serious problems for opponents who struggle to defend takedowns.

Almabaev has won 7 of his 8 UFC appearances and has collected victories over several established competitors. His recent performances have been particularly impressive. He submitted Alex Perez with a guillotine choke and followed that result with another notable victory over Charles Johnson, whom he defeated using a Suloev stretch in the third round.

Training at Dar Team, Almabaev has developed a style built around persistent grappling pressure, positional control and submission opportunities. He is comfortable taking opponents to the ground and attacking from different positions. His ability to maintain pressure throughout a fight could be especially important against a fast and technically gifted striker like Horiguchi.

His main challenge will be getting close enough to initiate grappling exchanges without absorbing too much damage on the way in. Horiguchi's movement and counter-striking make that task considerably more complicated.

Two different approaches to the striking exchanges

The contrast between their fighting styles is one of the most interesting aspects of this matchup. Horiguchi is a highly experienced striker who relies on speed, accuracy and movement rather than simply overwhelming opponents with volume. His karate background allows him to use unusual angles, quick entries and sudden changes of distance.

Almabaev is primarily recognised for his grappling, but he cannot be treated as a one-dimensional fighter. His striking provides a means of closing distance and creating opportunities for takedowns. He does not necessarily need to win every stand-up exchange; his priority will be finding openings to bring the contest into his preferred area.

Horiguchi's defensive statistics suggest that he is particularly difficult to hit cleanly. His average of 2.08 significant strikes absorbed per minute demonstrates his ability to limit incoming damage. Nevertheless, Almabaev's persistent forward pressure could test his defensive discipline and force him into uncomfortable positions.

The grappling battle could decide the outcome

Wrestling and submission defence may ultimately prove more important than the striking statistics. Horiguchi averages 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 40% accuracy and 61% takedown defence. These figures show that he possesses useful wrestling skills, although his defensive numbers also indicate that opponents can find opportunities to bring him down.

Almabaev's submission record makes every grappling exchange potentially dangerous. His preference for controlling opponents on the ground and attacking the neck creates a significant challenge for anyone who allows him to establish dominant positions. Even a brief defensive mistake could give the Kazakh fighter an opportunity to change the entire contest.

Horiguchi, however, is far from inexperienced on the ground. His victory over Ulanbekov demonstrated that he can use submission techniques himself, while his overall MMA experience has prepared him for a wide range of situations. The key will be avoiding prolonged exchanges in positions where Almabaev can establish control.

A shared defeat adds another dimension

Both contenders have a common opponent in Manel Kape, who has defeated each man by knockout. Horiguchi suffered his loss in June 2026, while Almabaev was stopped in March 2025. Although the circumstances of those fights were different, the results highlight the danger posed by elite striking speed and power in the flyweight division.

For Horiguchi, this contest represents an opportunity to recover from his latest setback and reinforce his position among the division's leading contenders. His experience in major championship fights gives him an important advantage in terms of composure and tactical awareness.

For Almabaev, defeating a former title challenger would be a major achievement. His recent submission victories have strengthened his reputation, and another success against an established opponent could bring him closer to the division's leading names.

Experience against submission danger

Horiguchi's technical striking, defensive efficiency and extensive experience explain why he enters this matchup as the more likely winner, with a 61% assessment compared with Almabaev's 39%. His ability to control distance and dictate the pace could make a significant difference over the course of the fight.

Nevertheless, Almabaev has the tools to produce a difficult night for the Japanese veteran. His submission skills, grappling pressure and recent victories make him a serious threat whenever the contest moves to the ground.

Ultimately, this matchup comes down to whether Horiguchi can keep the fight at a distance and use his striking advantages or whether Almabaev can impose his grappling game. The Japanese veteran has the experience and technical ability to control the exchanges, but the Kazakh contender possesses a particularly dangerous alternative. Their contrasting styles make this one of the most intriguing contests in the flyweight division.